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PRELIMINARY WINTER OUTLOOK 2011 - Version 2 (Updated Jan. 14) REPEAT OF SETUP AND HISTORY: There are a number of factors to consider when looking out long range. A primary factor is the state of ENSO ... that oscillating current varying between El Nino and La Nina, which is based on the water temperatures near the equator off the South American coast and westward. Last year we had La Nina conditions, which tends to bring drier and warmer conditions to the southeast US ... except we are far enough north, that it tends to be overridden by the state of the Arctic Oscillation (whether low or high pressure dominates the higher latitudes). And that is what happened early on in December (8.5" of snow for the month). But the AO went positive after that which led to our warmer late winter. This year we again have a rather strong La Nina, so we are at the mercy of the AO and also something called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Both of these change much more quickly, and thus are hard to pin down in longer ranges. That means it is extra difficult to predict the winter in our region. FL, GA, AL, are easier (mild/dry), Dakotas, Chicago, mid-west is easier (cold/stormy); but, ours is tricky. The National Weather Service just says we are most likely to have a near normal temp and precip winter. Accuweather, generally concurs, having us on the line between the two extremes, which, I guess, is about the same thing. So ... without further delay, here is my forecast: UPDATE: So far it has acted like a La Nina winter, with plenty of cold fronts and northern stream low pressure systems (no big Gulf lows churning up the east coast). I predict ... the last half of January will start chilly, but not cold, then it gets milder for about a week. January could easily see only a trace of snow (due to a flurry or two), although some areas got a little more (.4" at the airport). The pattern will begin to get stormier in February and early March. Ice will not likely be as much of a threat as I thought earlier. And, it has not been as windy (overall) as I thought, but that will change in February, and especially early March. I'm revising my season snow total from 17"to 12". WM |